Risk Insights
Institutional confidence in crypto deepened as Bullish and Gemini both filed for IPOs, underscoring Wall Street’s growing appetite for digital-asset exposure. Bullish’s NYSE debut was notable, with shares surging 83% on day one. However, public filings revealed a more complex financial picture: Bullish reported a $349 million loss in Q1 2025, while Gemini disclosed $68.6 million in revenue against a $282.5 million net loss in the first half of the year. These figures highlight the structural challenges facing even the sector’s most visible players, reinforcing the importance of systematic credit-risk monitoring.
Industry risk trends worsened during the month. Of the 48 exchanges Agio Ratings tracks, 40 registered weaker credit profiles. The average 1-year probability of default (PD) rose 50 basis points to 9.50%. LBank recorded the sharpest downgrade, driven by deteriorating on-chain balance and flow dynamics. By contrast, Bullish and BingX posted the strongest improvements, both benefiting from higher user engagement levels and healthier transaction activity.
Risk Snapshot
Agio Ratings calculates the one-year probability of default (PD) for multiple exchanges and custodians. These are the PDs for a sample of firms as of the last day of the month. PDs marked in green have improved; those in red deteriorated.
Risk News Roundup
New York Regulator Directs Banks to Use Blockchain Analytics (Blockworks)
Tether Unveils USAT Stablecoin to Boost US Market Presence (Reuters)
UK FCA Plans to Wave Some Rules for Crypto Companies (FT via Coindesk)