Risk Insights
The cryptocurrency market stabilized in March, with Bitcoin trading in a relatively narrow range. This stability followed initial price volatility driven by President Trump’s announcement of a US Strategic Crypto Reserve. Nevertheless, lingering tariff uncertainty continued to cast a shadow over multiple asset classes, contributing to sustained investor interest in safe-haven instruments. The broader implications of macro forces on crypto markets remain in flux.
Against this backdrop, risk levels rose slightly. The average 1-year probability of default (PD) for centralized exchanges ended the month at 11%. A broad-based deterioration was observed among exchanges, with 44 out of 48 entities seeing higher risk levels. This was especially pronounced with Binance US and Poloniex, where PD increases were driven by weakening on-chain balances, declining net flows, and heightened balance sheet volatility. In contrast, Bybit’s risk profile stabilized post-hack. Despite the lingering effects of the February breach, its PD rose by less than 0.5%—well below the monthly average.
Risk Snapshot
Each week, Agio Ratings calculates the one-year probability of default (PD) for multiple exchanges. These are the PDs for a sample of exchanges as of the last day of the month. PDs marked in green have improved relative to the prior month; those in red deteriorated.
Agio Ratings in the Financial Times
In a recent Financial Times opinion piece, Agio Ratings co-founder Kelly Hampaul underscores the urgent need for stronger counterparty risk assessment in digital asset markets. Drawing parallels to the historical evolution of credit rating systems in traditional finance, the article advocates for tools that instill trust and price risk effectively — a role Agio Ratings is pioneering in the crypto space.
Crypto World Needs To Get Better at Counterparty Risk >
Risk News Roundup
Tether, Galaxy and Ledn Take Lead as Crypto Lending Market Rebounds (PYMNTS)
Terraforma Labs to Open Creditor Claims Portal (Coindesk)
Cantor Leads a New Boom in Lending to Debt-Hungry Crypto Firms (Bloomberg)
Ripple Acquires Crypto-Friendly Prime Broker Hidden Road For $1.25 Billion (Fortune)
Meet the Agio Ratings Team
This spring we'll be on the road to share the latest product releases and insights on risk. Come meet us to get your own deep dive!
April 25: Harvard Law School Blockchain & Fintech Regulation Conference in Boston
May 6-7: FT Digital Assets Summit in London
May 14-16: Consensus in Toronto
May 20 - 21: Risk Americas Conference in New York City
About Agio Ratings
Agio Ratings is your trusted source of credit insights for the digital asset market. We serve market makers, funds, regulators, banks and insurers. Our expert team of credit analysts, statisticians and data scientists collect observable data to produce probabilities of default for 40+ exchanges. We also monitor shifts in short-term risk indicators for more than 80 market participants.
Copyright © 2025 Agio Ratings Limited, All rights reserved. The information contained in this briefing is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide investment, financial, or other professional advice. This is not investment advice or analysis. The ratings and other information contained in this briefing are based on publicly available data and our own proprietary methodologies, which may be subject to errors and omissions. The ratings and other information provided in this briefing should not be relied upon as the sole basis for making investment decisions. Investing in cryptocurrency and related instruments involves a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The value of investments can go down as well as up, and past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Cryptocurrency is a highly volatile and highly speculative asset class, and investors should be prepared to lose all or a substantial portion of their investment.The ratings provided in this briefing are subject to change without notice, and we make no warranty or representation regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the ratings or other information contained in this newsletter. We assume no liability or responsibility for any errors or omissions in the ratings or other information contained in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, investors should conduct their own due diligence and seek the advice of their own investment, financial, and legal advisors. We do not provide investment, financial, or other professional advice, and we make no representations or warranties regarding the suitability or appropriateness of any investment for any particular investor. By subscribing to this briefing, you agree to be bound by the terms of this disclaimer. If you do not agree to the terms of this disclaimer, you should not access or use this newsletter.