Risk Insights
After a brief drop to $75,000 in early April amid escalating U.S. tariff tensions and wider macroeconomic jitters, the crypto market rebounded sharply. Sentiment turned following the U.S. government's announcement of a 90-day suspension on new tariffs, alongside the Senate confirmation of Paul Atkins as the new SEC Chair. In parallel, the UK Treasury published draft legislation that would bring crypto exchanges, custodians, brokers, and staking platforms under the jurisdiction of the Financial Services and Markets Act. These provisions would impose capital, conduct, custody, and disclosure requirements—marking a significant regulatory pivot toward formalizing crypto infrastructure.
Exchange risk profiles reflected this shift in sentiment. Following two months of deterioration, the average 1-year probability of default (PD) across the 48 centralized exchanges we monitor fell 0.54 percentage points, landing at 11.0% by month’s end. A majority—42 out of 48—saw improvements in creditworthiness. MEXC's reduced leverage and Gemini’s healthier on-chain flow trends contributed to their risk reductions. Among the six exchanges that saw worsening risk, XT.com and Bitfinex stood out. XT.com exhibited heightened volatility in on-chain balances, while Bitfinex experienced weaker net flows and declining asset buffers.
Risk Snapshot
Each week, Agio Ratings calculates the one-year probability of default (PD) for multiple exchanges. These are the PDs for a sample of exchanges as of the last day of the month. PDs marked in green have improved relative to the prior month; those in red deteriorated.
Risk News Roundup
OCC Clarifies Bank Authority to Engage in Crypto-Asset Custody and Execution Services
Coinbase Strikes $2.9 Billion Deal for Deribit (Wall Street Journal)
UK preparing to ban consumers from buying crypto with borrowed funds (The Guardian)
About Agio Ratings
Agio Ratings is your trusted source of credit insights for the digital asset market. We serve market makers, funds, regulators, banks and insurers. Our expert team of credit analysts, statisticians and data scientists collect observable data to produce probabilities of default for 48 exchanges. We also monitor shifts in short-term risk indicators for more than 80 market participants.
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