Risk Insights
Stablecoins continue to dominate headlines, with Circle’s IPO drawing significant attention from both Wall Street and the crypto-native community. The listing’s reception and the stock’s ensuing appreciation became a barometer for institutional confidence in crypto infrastructure. On the regulatory front, with the GENIUS Act now law, the US market finally has a foundational legal framework for stablecoin oversight.
Globally, the tone was more cautious. The Monetary Authority of Singapore ordered locally based digital token service providers to cease servicing overseas users unless properly licensed, signaling a major shift for a jurisdiction that has long served as a regional crypto hub. The full implications of this move remain uncertain but could reduce offshore risk-taking behavior among Asia-based exchanges.
From a counterparty risk perspective, June marked a modest deterioration. The average 1-year probability of default (PD) across our rated centralized exchanges edged up to nearly 10%. Credit performance was mixed. Bitpanda led improvements with a 3.64% decline in PD, driven by a rebound in trading activity and user engagement. Conversely, Gate.io and AscendEX posted the largest risk increases, weighed down by weakened on-chain metrics and declining liquidity profiles.
Risk Snapshot
Agio Ratings calculates the one-year probability of default (PD) for multiple exchanges and custodians. These are the PDs for a sample of firms as of the last day of the month. PDs marked in green have improved; those in red deteriorated.
Risk News Roundup
Crypto Exchange Bullish Confidentially Files for IPO (Reuters)
Iran's Largest Crypto Exchange Targeted in $90M Hack (TRM Labs)
Tariff Risk Nudged More Firms Closer to Default, Moody's Says (Bloomberg)
About Agio Ratings
Agio Ratings is your trusted source of credit insights for the digital asset market. We serve market makers, funds, regulators, banks and insurers. Our expert team of credit analysts, statisticians and data scientists collect observable data to produce probabilities of default for exchanges and custodians. We also monitor shifts in short-term risk indicators for more than 100+ firms across CeFi and DeFi.
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