Risk Insights
Ethereum surged as public companies disclosed direct ETH purchases, drawing backing from prominent Wall Street figures including Cathie Wood. While such “Strategy-style” moves boosted sentiment, they also increased exposure to token price volatility—underscoring the need for ongoing credit risk discipline.
Regulatory momentum advanced with the White House’s Digital Asset Report, which promotes innovation-friendly rules, stablecoin adoption, and market modernization while warning of custody concentration risks. Our ratings on exchanges and custodians can help track risks related to these developments.
Exchange credit trends strengthened in July, with 45 of 48 rated CEXs improving. The average 1-year probability of default (PD) fell 1.07 percentage points to 8.90%. XT.com and Phemex led gains, while LBank, Gate.io, and Probit saw risk increases stemming from on-chain volatility, reduced activity, and weaker transaction flow patterns.
Risk Snapshot
Agio Ratings calculates the one-year probability of default (PD) for multiple exchanges and custodians. These are the PDs for a sample of firms as of the last day of the month. PDs marked in green have improved; those in red deteriorated.
How Banks Can Make Money With Stablecoins
We recently hosted a conversation with US community and regional bank executives on stablecoins. Our presentation covers how issuers and distributors make money and the legal and business risks that banks are likely to face as they consider the 4 ways to generate revenue in stablecoins.
Check out Navigating Stablecoin Innovation for Banks >
Risk News Roundup
S&P Rates Sky Protocol, Issuer of USDS Stablecoin, a 'B-' Rating (S&P)
Trump Signs Executive Order Prohibiting Debanking of Crypto Industry (Yahoo News)
JP Morgan Considers Offering Loans Backed By Clients' Cryptocurrency Holdings (FT via Reuters)
About Agio Ratings
Agio Ratings is your trusted source of credit insights for the digital asset market. We serve market makers, funds, regulators, banks and insurers. Our expert team of credit analysts, statisticians and data scientists collect observable data to produce probabilities of default for exchanges and custodians. We also monitor shifts in short-term risk indicators for more than 100+ firms across CeFi and DeFi.
Copyright © 2025 Agio Ratings Limited, All rights reserved. The information contained in this briefing is provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide investment, financial, or other professional advice. This is not investment advice or analysis. The ratings and other information contained in this briefing are based on publicly available data and our own proprietary methodologies, which may be subject to errors and omissions. The ratings and other information provided in this briefing should not be relied upon as the sole basis for making investment decisions. Investing in cryptocurrency and related instruments involves a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The value of investments can go down as well as up, and past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Cryptocurrency is a highly volatile and highly speculative asset class, and investors should be prepared to lose all or a substantial portion of their investment.The ratings provided in this briefing are subject to change without notice, and we make no warranty or representation regarding the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the ratings or other information contained in this newsletter. We assume no liability or responsibility for any errors or omissions in the ratings or other information contained in this newsletter. Before making any investment decisions, investors should conduct their own due diligence and seek the advice of their own investment, financial, and legal advisors. We do not provide investment, financial, or other professional advice, and we make no representations or warranties regarding the suitability or appropriateness of any investment for any particular investor. By subscribing to this briefing, you agree to be bound by the terms of this disclaimer. If you do not agree to the terms of this disclaimer, you should not access or use this newsletter.