Risk Insights
Industry risk levels improved meaningfully last month, with 41 of 48 rated exchanges registering lower 1-year probabilities of default (PD). The industry average PD declined by 1.34 percentage points to 9.8%, marking a broad-based recovery in creditworthiness.
Binance (4.05%) and Binance US (9.29%) led the gains with notable improvements in on-chain balance and flow behavior. In contrast, XT.com and Bitpanda saw their risk rise, driven by declining user activity and weakening asset patterns. Coinbase maintained its position as the safest exchange, holding a PD of 2.76% amid healthy performance across all tracked metrics despite news of a data breach and the SEC's investigation into potentially material misstatements in its public filings.
Risk Snapshot
Each week, Agio Ratings calculates the one-year probability of default (PD) for multiple exchanges. These are the PDs for a sample of exchanges as of the last day of the month. PDs marked in green have improved relative to the prior month; those in red deteriorated.
Introducing our new custodian ratings
Agio Ratings now offers ratings for over 25 crypto custodians. Each rating reflects a structured, evidence-based assessment designed to support institutional due diligence. By applying a consistent framework across providers, the methodology brings rigor and comparability to a critical part of the digital asset ecosystem.
Risk News Roundup
SEC Drops Binance Lawsuit (CNBC)
Coinbase Warns Of Up To $400 Million Hit from Cyberattack (Reuters)
UK Financial Conduct Authority To Lift Ban on Crypto Exchange Traded Notes (FCA)
US Senate Passes Stablecoin Bill (WSJ)
Crypto Exchange Gemini Files for IPO (WSJ)
About Agio Ratings
Agio Ratings is your trusted source of credit insights for the digital asset market. We serve market makers, funds, regulators, banks and insurers. Our expert team of credit analysts, statisticians and data scientists collect observable data to produce probabilities of default for 48 exchanges. We also monitor shifts in short-term risk indicators for more than 80 market participants.
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