Finding the Right Crypto Custodian: Evaluating Default Risk
Most "best crypto custodian" lists rank by reputation or regulatory status. This ranking uses 12-month probability of default, the only metric that directly measures the risk of losing client assets.
Institutional crypto custody has a measurement problem. Traditional credit agencies don't cover digital asset counterparties, leaving risk managers to rely on reputation, regulatory status, and gut feel. The absence of crypto-specific credit ratings became expensive in November 2022, when FTX's collapse vaporized $8 billion in customer funds and caught institutional investors (including Tiger Global, Sequoia, and the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan) completely off guard.
Agio Ratings accurately measures the 12-month probability of default of custodians and exchanges to give traders better risk intelligence across the digital asset ecosystem. Back in 2022, Agio Ratings' models correctly flagged FTX's elevated default risk four months before its bankruptcy. In early 2025, the same models assigned Bybit a relatively low probability of default amongst comparable exchanges, a forecast which was supported when Bybit resiliently survived its $1.5 billion security breach.
This list ranks the 14 leading crypto custodians by institutional credit risk using Agio Ratings’ Q1 2026 Custodian probabilities of default (PD). A lower PD means a lower default risk. Agio Ratings produces this analysis using proprietary statistical credit models. US-regulated, TradFi-backed custodians dominate the top five, while newer entrants and offshore players carry meaningfully higher default probabilities.
How Agio Ratings Calculates Default Risk for Custodians
Agio Ratings' custodian risk methodology is designed to translate operational, regulatory, and on-chain signals into quantitative estimates of creditworthiness. The approach prioritizes broad-basedness, modularity, and statistical grounding.
It starts with aggregating raw on-chain, reputational, legal, and operational data, then translating these inputs into individually scored risk features on a scale. These feature-level scores are weighted across key risk dimensions and summed into a total score, which is then passed through a calibrated logistic transformation using Bayesian inference to derive a probability of default. Finally, probabilities of default are blended with custodian-specific risk profiles to produce a standardized, comparable rating.
For institutions, Agio Ratings translates complex data into actionable risk metrics. These then become quantitative inputs for exposure limits, counterparty selection, and insurance underwriting, fitting into the same framework that governs traditional finance credit decisions to digital assets.
The 14 Best Crypto Custodians Ranked by Default Risk
1. Fidelity Digital Assets
The lowest default risk in crypto custody, backed by one of the largest asset managers on the planet.
12-Month Probability of Default: 0.39% Quarterly Change: -0.09%
Fidelity Digital Assets received an OCC national trust bank charter in 2025, adding federal oversight to an already well-capitalized operation. Fidelity has been building crypto infrastructure since 2014, making it one of the earliest traditional finance players in the space. Backed by Fidelity Investments' $4+ trillion AUM infrastructure, Fidelity Digital Assets offers institutional clients a familiar counterparty with deep pockets. Fidelity Digital Assets supports BTC, ETH, LTC, and SOL custody and trading, with SOC 1 Type 2 and SOC 2 Type 2 certifications.
2. Anchorage Digital
The only crypto-native firm with a federal bank charter, validated by five years of OCC exams.
12-Month Probability of Default: 0.46% Quarterly Change: 0.00%
Anchorage became the first company to receive an OCC federal bank charter for crypto services in January 2021. Anchorage spent tens of millions building compliance infrastructure from scratch, including hundreds of dedicated meetings with regulators. The OCC lifted a 2022 consent order in August 2025, validating that rebuild and restoring Anchorage's full regulatory standing. Anchorage is now positioned as a white-label stablecoin issuer under the GENIUS Act framework, with clients including BlackRock and other major institutions.
2. BitGo (Tied)
A pioneer in multi-sig security, now holding a federal charter with an IPO on the horizon.
12-Month Probability of Default: 0.46% Quarterly Change: -0.02%
Founded in 2013, BitGo helped define institutional-grade custody with multi-signature wallet architecture. BitGo serves thousands of institutional clients across exchanges, funds, and platforms worldwide. BitGo received OCC national bank charter approval in December 2025 and filed for a $200M NYSE IPO in January 2026, with Goldman Sachs and Citigroup leading the offering. Assets under custody crossed $90 billion in mid-2025, and BitGo expanded its regulatory footprint with MiCA-compliant licenses in Germany and broker-dealer approval in Dubai.
4. Coinbase Prime
The largest publicly traded crypto exchange, with custody infrastructure that rivals traditional finance giants.
12-Month Probability of Default: 0.49% Quarterly Change: 0.00%
Coinbase Custody Trust Company operates as a qualified custodian and fiduciary under New York state banking law, chartered by NYDFS. Coinbase Prime secures roughly 12% of total crypto market capitalization and supports over 470 assets. Public company status (NASDAQ: COIN) provides financial transparency that private competitors can't match. Institutional clients get integrated prime brokerage (trading, custody, and financing) on a single Coinbase Prime interface with SOC 1 Type 2 and SOC 2 Type 2 certifications.
5. NYDIG
Bitcoin-only focus with deep ties to traditional finance through Stone Ridge and major bank partnerships.
12-Month Probability of Default: 0.50% Quarterly Change: -0.02%
NYDIG operates as a vertically integrated Bitcoin company, combining custody, trading, and power infrastructure under one roof. NYDIG holds a New York trust company charter and serves as sub-custodian for U.S. Bank's institutional Bitcoin custody program, relaunched in September 2025 after SAB 121's repeal cleared regulatory obstacles. Stone Ridge Asset Management backing provides balance sheet strength uncommon among crypto-native firms. NYDIG's Bitcoin specialization means narrower asset coverage alongside deeper single-protocol expertise.
6. Komainu
Traditional finance DNA from Nomura, Ledger, and CoinShares, designed for institutional custody.
12-Month Probability of Default: 0.66% Quarterly Change: -0.08%
Komainu is a joint venture between Nomura's Laser Digital, hardware security firm Ledger, and asset manager CoinShares. Komainu raised $75 million from Blockstream in January 2025, funded in Bitcoin, a novel structure that added Blockstream's Adam Back to the board. Jersey-regulated with operating licenses from Dubai's VARA, Komainu offers on-chain, bankruptcy-remote segregated wallets. The Komainu Connect platform enables institutional clients to trade on venues like Deribit while keeping assets in segregated custody.
7. Copper
Swiss-based custody with MPC architecture and prime brokerage integration for active trading institutions.
12-Month Probability of Default: 0.83% Quarterly Change: 0.00%
Copper built its custody infrastructure around multi-party computation (MPC) technology, eliminating single private key vulnerabilities. Copper serves hedge funds and trading firms that need custody integrated with prime services: margin, lending, and multi-venue execution. Swiss jurisdiction provides regulatory stability and client privacy protections. ClearLoop network enables off-exchange settlement, allowing institutions to trade across multiple venues without moving assets from cold storage.
8. Zodia Custody
Bank-backed from day one, with Standard Chartered and Northern Trust as founding shareholders.
12-Month Probability of Default: 0.84% Quarterly Change: -0.14%
Zodia launched as a joint venture between Standard Chartered's SC Ventures and Northern Trust, latter adding SBI Holdings, National Australia Bank, and Emirates NBD as investors. Zodia operates across seven offices globally with FCA registration in the UK, Central Bank of Ireland authorization, and CSSF registration in Luxembourg. Zodia disbanded its Japanese joint venture with SBI in September 2025, though SBI remains a shareholder. The 14 basis point quarterly improvement represents the largest risk reduction among ranked custodians.
9. Gemini Custody
Winklevoss-founded, NYDFS-regulated, and freshly public after a September 2025 Nasdaq IPO.
12-Month Probability of Default: 1.01% Quarterly Change: -0.81%
Gemini Trust Company holds a limited purpose trust charter from NYDFS, operating as a qualified custodian and fiduciary under New York Banking Law. Gemini went public on Nasdaq in September 2025 (ticker: GEMI) at a $3.3 billion valuation, and secured MiCA authorization from Malta for EU-wide operations. The 81 basis point quarterly risk improvement (largest in the ranking) reflects stabilization after 2024 settlements related to the defunct Earn program. Gemini supports 130+ cryptocurrencies with offline cold storage as default.
10. Cobo
Asia-Pacific focused custody with multi-signature and smart contract wallet infrastructure.
12-Month Probability of Default: 1.19% Quarterly Change: -0.51%
Cobo offers custody solutions spanning MPC wallets, smart contract wallets, and traditional multi-signature setups. Cobo is Guernsey-regulated with additional licenses in the US (Money Services Business), Singapore (Registered Fund Management Company), and Hong Kong (TCSP License). Cobo supports a broad range of institutional custody architectures, from fully custodial to hybrid self-custody models. Insurance coverage is underwritten by Inigo (Lloyd's syndicate) and OneInfinity by OneDegree.
10. Hex Trust (Tied)
Dual Hong Kong-Singapore licensing for institutions prioritizing Asia-Pacific market access.
12-Month Probability of Default: 1.19% Quarterly Change: -0.51%
Hex Trust operates with regulatory authorization in both Hong Kong and Singapore, providing institutional custody across the two largest Asian financial hubs. Hex Trust offers bank-grade security architecture with insurance-backed custody solutions. Strong regional focus means deep integration with Asian exchanges, OTC desks, and institutional counterparties. The 51 basis point quarterly improvement mirrors Cobo's trajectory, suggesting sector-wide risk compression in the Asia-Pacific custody segment.
12. Xapo Bank
Gibraltar-licensed bank combining traditional banking services with Bitcoin cold storage.
12-Month Probability of Default: 1.42% Quarterly Change: 0.00%
Xapo operates as a licensed bank in Gibraltar, offering USD, EUR, and GBP accounts alongside Bitcoin custody. The banking license creates a regulatory framework familiar to traditional finance allocators, with depositor protections that pure-play crypto custodians lack. Cold storage architecture keeps the majority of Bitcoin holdings offline in geographically distributed facilities. Bitcoin-only coverage limits utility for multi-asset institutional portfolios but provides deep specialization for BTC-focused treasuries.
12. Börse Stuttgart Digital Custody (Tied)
Germany's second-largest stock exchange backing institutional crypto custody with BaFin oversight.
12-Month Probability of Default: 1.42% Quarterly Change: -0.28%
Börse Stuttgart Digital Custody brings traditional exchange infrastructure to digital asset safekeeping, regulated by Germany's BaFin. The backing of an established stock exchange reduces counterparty credit risk relative to standalone crypto custodians. German regulatory oversight provides EU institutional compliance alignment, particularly relevant as MiCA implementation progresses. Börse Stuttgart Digital Custody has a limited geographic footprint compared to global competitors, but strong positioning for European institutional demand.
14. Ceffu
Binance's institutional custody arm, now MiCA-compliant and operationally independent.
12-Month Probability of Default: 1.48% Quarterly Change: -0.53%
Ceffu operates as Binance's segregated institutional custody solution, regulated in Poland under MiCA requirements. Ceffu uses multi-signature and MPC wallet architecture to secure client assets separately from Binance exchange operations. The 53 basis point quarterly improvement suggests a strengthening risk profile as Ceffu establishes independent operations. Binance affiliation creates both distribution advantages and reputational considerations for conservative institutional allocators.
Comparison Table of Custodians
Key Takeaways from the Q1 2026 Rankings
Overall, institutional crypto custodians present relatively low default risk. Most ranked custodians carry less than a 1% probability of default over a 12-month horizon, a level comparable to investment-grade corporate credit.
A sub-1% probability is not zero. Custodian default remains a measurable risk that warrants ongoing monitoring, particularly for institutions with concentrated counterparty exposure. Custodians with probability of default above 1% may warrant closer scrutiny or reconsideration in counterparty selection frameworks.
Need This Data for Your Risk Models? Agio Ratings Provides Custodian Risk Intelligence
Traditional rating agencies build their models for corporate bonds and bank credit, not crypto counterparties. Agio Ratings fills that gap with quantitative methodology designed for digital asset markets.
Agio Ratings covers 70+ exchanges and custodians with continuous model updates. The custodian and exchange ratings combined process nearly 20 explanatory variables to generate calibrated probability of default forecasts. The Risk Simulator models portfolio-level credit losses across 1 million+ Monte Carlo simulations, incorporating correlation and contagion risk across counterparty allocations.
Agio Ratings' users include the likes of Wintermute, Ledn, and Relm Insurance. The partnership with the latter started in early 2025, helping Relm to power their crypto exchange default insurance product and enabling underwriters to price digital asset risk with quantitative backing.
For institutions building crypto exposure, Agio Ratings delivers the same risk framework that governs traditional finance credit decisions, applied to an asset class that legacy providers ignore.
Book a demo at Agio Ratings →
Frequently Asked Questions
What is crypto custodian default risk?
Default risk measures the probability that a custodian fails to return client assets over a defined time horizon. Agio Ratings quantifies this as a 12-month probability of default (PD). Default scenarios include bankruptcy, insolvency, security breaches resulting in asset loss, and regulatory seizure. For institutional allocators, PD provides a standardized metric to compare counterparty credit risk across custodians with different structures, jurisdictions, and business models.
How do I choose the right crypto custodian?
Start with quantitative risk metrics: 12-month probability of default gives you a comparable baseline across providers. Then layer in regulatory status (federal charter vs. state trust vs. offshore license), insurance coverage, and asset support. Agio Ratings' methodologies provide ratings for over 70 entities in the form of a comparable and quantitative probability of default. For institutions exposed to multiple custodians or exchanges, Agio’s toolkit goes one step further to assess portfolio-level risk of default by incorporation contagion risk.
Is Agio Ratings better than traditional credit agencies for crypto?
Traditional agencies like Moody's and S&P don't cover crypto counterparties. Their models weren't built for digital asset-specific risk factors like on-chain reserve verification, exchange token exposure, or proof-of-reserves gaps. Agio Ratings' methodology captures these variables alongside traditional credit metrics. Agio Ratings flagged FTX's elevated default risk four months before bankruptcy, when traditional due diligence missed the warning signs entirely.
How does custodian risk relate to exchange default risk?
Both represent counterparty credit risk, but with different exposure profiles. Exchange defaults (like FTX) typically involve commingled assets and trading losses. Custodian defaults center on asset safekeeping: security breaches, operational failures, or insolvency affecting segregated client holdings. Pure-play custodians generally carry lower risk than vertically integrated exchange-custodians, though the gap narrows with proper asset segregation. Agio Ratings provides comparable probabilities of default for exchanges and custodians, using methodologies grounded in statistical credit risk modeling.
What changed in 2025 for crypto custody regulation?
Three regulatory shifts reshaped the landscape. First, SAB 121 repeal (via SAB 122) removed capital requirements that made crypto custody prohibitively expensive for traditional banks. Second, the GENIUS Act codified federal standards for stablecoin custody and digital asset safekeeping. Third, the OCC granted national bank charters to Fidelity Digital Assets and BitGo, following Anchorage's 2021 precedent. SAB 121 repeal, the GENIUS Act, and new OCC charters opened the door for major banks like U.S. Bank to re-enter crypto custody after years on the sidelines.
How quickly can I see custodian risk changes?
Agio's Anomaly Alerts detect statistically significant risk shifts in near real-time, flagging deterioration before it becomes market consensus. Quarterly PD updates incorporate the latest on-chain and off-chain data into calibrated forecasts. For active risk management, continuous monitoring enables proactive exposure limit adjustments rather than reactive responses to headline events.
What's the difference between low-risk and high-risk crypto custodians?
Low-risk custodians (sub-0.50% PD) share common characteristics: US federal or state regulatory oversight, TradFi parent company backing, established operating history, and strong capitalization. Higher-risk custodians (above 1.00% PD) typically operate in offshore jurisdictions, lack traditional finance backing, or have shorter track records. The risk spread reflects capital strength, regulatory accountability, and operational maturity.
What are the best alternatives to Coinbase Prime?
Fidelity Digital Assets offers the lowest probability of default (0.39%) with OCC federal charter status and $4+ trillion parent company backing. Anchorage Digital provides federal bank charter protection with a 0.46% PD. BitGo matches Anchorage's risk profile while offering broader asset coverage and multi-signature architecture. All three provide institutional-grade custody with lower default risk than Coinbase Prime's 0.49% PD. Agio tracks a number of alternatives via its exchange and custodian ratings and custodian ratings for direct risk comparison.
Is Fidelity Digital Assets safer than Coinbase Prime?
Based on Agio's Q1 2026 data, yes. Fidelity carries a 0.39% probability of default versus Coinbase Prime's 0.49%. The 10 basis point gap reflects Fidelity's OCC national trust bank charter and $4+ trillion parent company backing. Both are low-risk by industry standards, but Fidelity's TradFi infrastructure provides marginally stronger credit fundamentals.
Is Anchorage Digital safer than BitGo?
They're tied at 0.46% PD in Q1 2026. Anchorage has a longer federal charter history (January 2021), while BitGo received OCC approval in December 2025. BitGo's quarterly risk improved slightly (-0.02%) while Anchorage held flat. For practical purposes, both represent equivalent institutional-grade risk profiles with different operational strengths: Anchorage in stablecoin issuance, BitGo in multi-sig architecture and global licensing.
Are bank-chartered custodians actually safer than crypto-native firms?
The data says yes. Every custodian below 0.50% PD holds either an OCC federal charter or NYDFS trust charter. Bank charters require capital reserves, regular examinations, and compliance infrastructure that offshore or lightly-regulated custodians don't face. Crypto-native tenure matters less than regulatory accountability: Gemini (founded 2015) carries higher risk than Fidelity (crypto launch 2018) because of capital structure differences, not experience.
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